Super Bowl Preview
Edition #219
Hey guys! As you know by now, I'm out for personal reasons, and I’m not able to write a complete Super Bowl article. I put some words I wrote here before I left so that there is still some personal work, but I also copied a bit from ESPN (it's visible), so that you guys get the amazing info that you need.I'll be back real soon, and I'll get on articles double time! Happy Super Bowl people! May the Eagles win!
So, here we are. It’s Super Bowl week. It’s the Eagles and the Chiefs. No, you’re not feeling Deja Vu. This happened just 2 years ago.
Obviously, if you’ve been a longtime subscriber to this publication, you would know my fandom for the Eagles. But, unlike most sports writers, or NFL fans in general, I don’t really hate the Chiefs (even though I post notes like these:).
If you’re new to football and haven’t followed all season, here are the “claims” made by people all over the internet.
The Chiefs are not skilled. The only reason they’re winning is that the referees favor them. They’re giving crucial penalties at crucial moments. The NFL is rigging the game so that the Chiefs win, just so that the NFL can make more money off of Taylor Swift.
Even with the internet being incredibly stupid1, they’re not wrong. Josh Allen was definitely over the first down marker during the AFC Championship.
The whole point is, the Bills would have a 90% chance of winning if they had just converted that 1st down. It would be over. The Chiefs wouldn’t 3-peat, and Josh Allen would finally have a chance to win it all in the Super Bowl, versus the Eagles. Instead, the referees marked it short, and even with a reviewing system in place, it is still extremely hard for them to overturn a call. The referees are a whole different story, and there will be a piece of the Chiefs actually 3-peat.
The Eagles were the first opponent the Chiefs faced on their road to a 3-peat. While the Chiefs weren’t known for kissing the refs at that time (correct me if I’m wrong), the Eagles were absolutely screwed by the refs in a late holding call on James Bradberry. The Chiefs were then able to run the clock easily, and then the Chiefs kicked a 27-yard field goal, and an extremely embarrassing Jalen Hurts Hail Mary throw.
At that time, though, the Eagles didn’t have Saquon Barkley. This time, they have the best running back in the league, who’s only 30 yards away from breaking an all-time NFL record.
Now, Barkley has a very tall task to face. While the Chiefs don’t rank top 5 in rush defense, they do rank 7th. But, the Chiefs allowed an average of 148.0 rushing yards per game in the playoffs this year, and while that isn’t a huge amount, that still offers some sort of leeway for Barkley to make some magic happen.
If the Chiefs want their three-peat, they're going to have to beat the best team they've played in a Super Bowl in the Patrick Mahomes era. The Eagles have lost three games all season, two of them after their receivers dropped passes that would have clinched victories. Since their Week 5 bye, they have gone 15-1, posted a plus-27 turnover margin and won their games by an average of 13.8 points.
This Eagles team is better than the one the Chiefs beat two years ago in Super Bowl LVII and better than either of the 49ers teams Kansas City topped in Super Bowls LIV and LVIII. Philadelphia is even scarier than the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers, who managed to give Mahomes his only championship game defeat in Super Bowl LV.
Coach: Andy Reid
Reid brings loads of playoff and Super Bowl experience. In 26 seasons -- 12 with the Chiefs -- Reid is 28-16 in the postseason and 3-2 in the Super Bowl. He was a finalist for the 2024 AP Coach of the Year award, an honor not usually given to the leader of a two-time defending Super Bowl championship team. The 2024 Chiefs were hit hard by injuries, had trouble at times protecting Mahomes and were inconsistent for much of the season on defense. But thanks in part to Reid, they are still one win away from winning a third consecutive championship.
How did they get here?
Getting to 17-2 (including two playoff victories) took a lot of work. Kansas City won 11 regular-season games plus the AFC Championship Game against the Bills by one score and at times was aided by an element of luck. But the Chiefs also showed a knack for making the right play at the right time. A blocked field goal on the final play to preserve a two-point win against the Broncos in Week 10 was anything but luck.
Coach: Nick Sirianni
Sirianni is the first coach in the Super Bowl era to make the playoffs in each of his first four seasons while reaching the Super Bowl multiple times. He guided the Eagles to the title game against the Chiefs in the 2023 season, a 38-35 Eagles loss. With a regular-season record of 48-20, Sirianni has the third-highest winning percentage (.706) by a head coach in the modern era (minimum 50 games), trailing only John Madden and George Allen.
How did they get here?
The Eagles got off to a shaky 2-2 start, testing the nerves of the fan base following a 1-6 collapse down the stretch last season. They became more of a Saquon Barkley-focused offense during the Week 5 bye, and that propelled them to a 10-game winning streak and a 14-3 regular-season record. Led by the NFL's top rushing game and defense, Philadelphia earned the No. 2 seed in the NFC and won three straight postseason home games to punch its ticket to the Super Bowl, including a 55-23 thumping of the Commanders in the NFC title game.
Strength: Decision-making. Despite Mahomes ranking fifth with a 69 QBR this season (postseason included), he ranks first on third down (90). Despite throwing to the sticks only 28% of the time on early downs (second lowest), his number jumps to 60% (11th most) on third down, demonstrating how Mahomes changes his risk profile when the situation warrants it. And when Mahomes decides to scramble, he is hyperefficient, averaging 0.79 EPA per play, third highest and highest among any quarterback with at least a 2% scramble rate.
Lastly, the Chiefs ranked second in average separation at the time of ball arrival (3.9), per NFL Next Gen Stats. That might sound like a wide receiver statistic, but it might have more to do with the scheme and quarterback; separation in this context is only measured on targets, and this is in part a reflection of Mahomes' ability to find and throw to an open player.
Weakness: Accuracy. It's funny that the consensus best quarterback of this generation is mediocre when it comes to accuracy, but it has been true for years. Mahomes recorded a minus-2 completion percentage over expectation this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. His 14% off-target rate was 12th best, but that came while averaging just 6.2 air yards per target (third lowest) -- shorter passes are much less likely to be off-target. Mahomes has had a negative completion percentage over expectation in every season since 2019.
Strength: Runs -- both designed (including the tush push) and scrambles. The Eagles running the tush push with such success is a credit to Hurts and the offensive line, and its effect shouldn't be minimized. Hurts ranks second among all quarterbacks in total EPA (58) generated on runs and scrambles -- something that was true even before the postseason. And it isn't all fourth-and-1 conversions. Looking at plays with 2 yards or more to go, the Eagles' EPA on Hurts' runs (37) ranks third best behind the Commanders' Jayden Daniels and the Bills' Josh Allen.
Hurts is also more effective on runs up the middle than going east and west; he averaged 0.29 EPA per play on runs and scrambles with at least 2 yards to go outside the tackles, but 0.42 EPA per play inside.
Weakness: Sack avoidance. The Eagles' offensive line deservedly receives plenty of praise. It ranked sixth in pass block win rate (67.4%) and has arguably the NFL's best tackle in Lane Johnson. And yet, Hurts has taken sacks on 9.4% of his dropbacks, which is ahead of only the Titans' Will Levis and the Bears' Caleb Williams among QBR-qualifying quarterbacks. The effects of that issue have been profound; the Eagles' offense has recorded 1.1 expected points added per drive that does not include a sack, but that number drops to minus-1.0 when there is at least one sack.
ESPN's FPI has the Eagles winning 56.1% of the simulations -- and they are favored to win by an average of 2.2 points.
This matchup is a showdown between two top-10 teams in FPI: the No. 5 Eagles (6.0) and the No. 6 Chiefs (3.9). The Eagles are fifth on offense and the Chiefs rank seventh. On defense, Philadelphia ranks first and Kansas City is 13th. The Chiefs were No. 2 in FPI in the preseason, while the Eagles were No. 5.
In the preseason, the Chiefs had the second-best chance to make the Super Bowl (18.9%) and the Eagles had the third-best odds (16.4%). Kansas City was given a 9.4% chance to win it, while Philadelphia was at 9.6%.
We asked 67 experts to weigh in on who will win. The Chiefs were picked by 41 of them (61.2%), while the Eagles claimed 26 votes (38.8%). The most common score predictions were 27-24 (picked by 10 of our experts), 27-23 (five) and 31-28 (five).
Of the 67 experts who weighed in, 37 (55.2%) picked Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP. Mahomes (+105), Barkley (+275) and Hurts (+360) are the ESPN BET betting favorites.
ESPN
Sports Square is the one place where you can find unbiased and well-written content, with all the info you need in the sports palace. If you aren’t subscribed, you need to be, or else you’re doomed.