Sports Summit Piece #3 || Talking about the New Generation of Tennis with Jacob Sutton

Intro:

When I first advertised the Sports Summit, it was Jacob Sutton writing tennis. You probably didn’t believe me. You might’ve just thought I was just doing a marketing push.

But, hell yeah I was telling the truth.

If you didn’t know, Jacob Sutton is actually a tennis player. From the age of 11, he was training and even played a pro event. He was aiming to become a top 100 player. In fact, he would’ve become one… if not for the horrific stuff that happened after that tournament. He suffered an immense amount of injuries. You can read the rest of the story here.

If you read the first-ever roundup I hosted, I asked 14 writers who their favorite player is. Jacob wrote Roger Federer. Not James Harden or Michael Jordan. Yeah. He knows basketball, but he knows lots of tennis too and you’re going to see that in this article.

Carlos Alcaraz is taking over the world. ALERT! Janiik Sinner is World #1 and he ain’t born in the 1900’s. Neither is Alcaraz. Today, Jacob and I are going to be talking about The New Gen. Comparing them to the players of the past and looking into the future. 

Let’s dive into the tennis world, shall we?

The New Gen

Smayan:

The past. It includes an uncountable amount of superstar players, headlined by Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic. They’ve won 66 total Grand Slams and it’s still not over.

But, it may be, unless Nadal somehow pulls through. Djokovic isn’t doing very well against Alcaraz and while Djokovic leads the H2H against Sinner, his last few attempts against Janiik have just not been great as he’s lost his last 2 matchups in a row. That includes the 2024 Australian Open which is where Sinner made a name for himself.

Djokovic is slowly and slowly going down physically. Nadal has totally gone down. But, what a show this generation of tennis players have put on. Federer is an amazing player. Nadal is THE BEST. Djokovic sucks. He does, but fine, I’m going to put away my Djokovic bias for just this one. Djokovic is great and a record holder.

But, another guy who’s probably going to hold a record WAY HIGHER than Djokovic right now is Carlos Alcaraz and matchups with him and Sinner are going to be as fire as Nadal and Federer matchups back in the days. It’s going to be a nice two decades for tennis.

I am curious, though, what you think about the new gen compared to the old one, Jacob. I’ll tell you my answer after, but can this generation of men's tennis players be better than Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic? If not, can any?

Jacob: Asking whether a “generation” can be better than the Big 3 (4, counting Andy Murray), begs the question of what a generation truly entails. For example, is a generation required to include at least a trio of dominant players? By that account, I’d argue that no three players on the tour currently can outmatch the three (or four) players we’ve watched dominate for the past two decades or so. However, if you qualify a generation as any player that can surpass any of the Big 4, then I think things become a little more complex.

Alcaraz and Sinner are currently the most dominant players of the next generation, with Alcaraz winning 4 Slams in 3 years and Sinner grabbing his first earlier at this year’s Australian Open.Unlike the Federer/Nadal duopoly of the early 2000s, however, both play quite similar styles of tennis. Both like to run around their forehands (both are in the top 10 for forehands per match), go for winners, and can cover the court to an almost impossible degree. Outside of that duo, nobody has asserted themselves as the third member of the “New Big 3”, unless you count Daniil Medvedev, who is already 28 years of age. 

So far, it seems highly likely that Alcaraz will surpass Andy Murray in almost every category. He’s already matched Murray’s Grand Slam count, has earned 5 Masters titles in less than 4 years, and looks the part of the face of the game for the next decade. While he may have a difficult time grabbing three Olympic medals (and two golds) as Murray did, we’re talking about a 21-year-old with a pedigree that we haven’t seen since the Big 4 stepped into the game. 

As for Sinner, his path is a little less clear but is tantalizing nonetheless. There’s a possibility that Sinner – who is only 22 years of age himself – loses out on multiple Grand Slam titles due to Alcaraz. After all, he has 4 wins out of 10 tries against the Spaniard, with the most recent being at Roland Garros this year. It’s a very Fedal-like dynamic and may prevent Sinner from really making a claim for being “better” (statistically) than any of the Big 4.

So, without going into the details of how good the rest of the Big 4 generation was (Tsonga, Ferrer, Wawrinka, etc.) it seems unlikely that we’ll see this “generation” surpass that of Djokovic, Federer, Rafa, and Murray. On an individual basis, it’s possible. Generationally, I just don’t see it yet.

Smayan:

Definitely agree with everything you said (other than that Murray is a big part of that gen).

The classic Nadal vs Federer matchups or Rafa vs The Joker matches were all crazy good. I could watch those games forever. 

While all the players in this “era” are great, right now, there isn't a big 4 or 3. In fact, you can even say it isn't a big 2 with Sinner only owning 1 grand slam title. Alcaraz may beat Djokovic's Grand Slam record when he retires. He may have crazy games against Sinner, but there will never be classics like Rafa vs. Federer. We’ve been spoiled with great tennis matches for the last 2 decades. It doesn't look like we'll see better tennis matches on the men’s side for the next 2 decades.

Now, on to the present. Let's talk about Sinner and Alcaraz. Jacob, you take the current World No. 1. How does he play (gritty, perfect strokes), and who does he compare to the Big 4?

Jacob:

As an aside, I must mention that Andy Murray is a big part of that generation – one does not stumble into 3 Grand Slams and 2 gold medals by accident, but I digress.

Sinner is marvelous, but is a strange case to make comparatively. On one hand, he’s in the top 10 this year for the longest average rally length, yet, on the other, he wins 53.5% of points that stay within 1 to 3 shots – that latter number is better than:

1. Stefanos Tsistipas

2. Carlos Alcaraz

3. Ben Shelton

4. Nicolas Jarry

5. Gael Monfils

So, in a way, it would be unfair to categorize him as a “grinder”, so to speak, but it would be equally unfair to consider him a guns-a-blazing type of player. If you wanted to make the most apt comparison, he seems to be a mix of Djokovic and Federer in play style. The Djokovic of him comes out when he needs it most; the longest rallies, the incredible on-the-stretch backhand winners, and the incredible footwork from behind the baseline.

In contrast, the Federerness comes out when Sinner is on the attack; the run-around forehands start flying, the net game begins to flourish, and every shot he makes appears to zing through the court with the speed of a Japanese bullet train. 

His tendency to get rushed on the forehand side is one thing that seems to keep him from being the “perfect” player, if there were such a thing. When put up against players with heavy spin, he occasionally puts up floaters for forehands. While it isn’t a death knell, the elite players (AKA, Alcaraz) have learned to exploit it to a degree. It’s something akin to how Federer’s beautiful one-hander would become a neutral shot against Rafa’s heavy lefty spin. And yet, being #1 in the world is no small feat, right? Sinner is here to stay, even if Alcaraz has the overall edge.

Smayan:

Before I say anything, Andy Murray has how many grand slams? 3. So, although he’s a great player, I don’t believe that he deserves to be considered one of the best of all time.

Now to talk about Carlos Alcaraz. He has the combination of Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal, but most of his game comes from Federer. In fact, I was doing some research on this the other day, and many say that, while Federer is such an accomplished player, Alcaraz is a more finished Federer. 

He’s super aggressive and creative with the ball, and the fact that he’s able to go from the back to the inside of the court so fast—that’s literally Federer’s play! Coming out of his Federer-style play, he’s also pretty good at counter-attacking which relates to Djokovic, and can play a lot of long rallies with lots of spin. Guess who? Nadal. So, I guess I can agree with people saying that Alcaraz is a more complete Federer.

No one’s a perfect player and Alcaraz has his weaknesses. Former World #1 Andre Agassi pointed out that when Alcaraz doesn’t move his feet, he’s not sure about what he needs to do as his whole game is based on him moving. Another one of his huge weaknesses that I’ve seen watching his matches is the fact that he makes a lot of unforced errors. During his most recent match against Djokovic, although he won in straight sets, he made 54 errors. He made 61 unforced errors vs Zverev in the Roland Garros final so… it is a problem.

Conclusion:

Jacob: 

Now, I never said Andy Murray was one of the best of all time (though I certainly think he falls in the top 15 somewhere), but that he was one of the best of his generation. Yet, once again, I digress.

Regardless of what happens over the next decade or so, it does seem likely that both Alcaraz and Sinner will define this generation, barring a Djokovic-like mid-generation Hall of Famer. 18-year-old Jakub Mensik has done a great job but is still only (“only” seems weird to say here) 81 in the world, while the not-yet-18 On-sponsored Joao Fonesca has a good game but we still don’t know what projects to be long-term. With nobody else in Alcaraz and Sinner’s way, this is, in fact, their chance to take over the next generation for good. 

Smayan:

I guess you’re right about Murray (I do not like admitting that…).

Alcaraz and Sinner are great tennis players. Even with all the amazing players playing the game now, I don’t think they will stand a chance against any of these two. Who knows? With the records Alcaraz is setting right now, Alcaraz could hold the Grand Slams won title in the future! Sinner could be competing with him for that. Maybe Sinner wins more than Alcaraz. In the next generation of tennis, you never know.

That’s it for this one. See y’all later.