COMMANDERS AND RAIDERS?? I mean, Commanders have a chance, the east is tough, but WE TALK ABOUT RAIDERS. CONTENDERS THIS YEAR ACCORDING TO YOU?! Ain't happening
Hey I mean look at their roster. One of the most underrated rosters in the league. The defense is shaping up to be amazing and guess who you have on offense? Davante Adams and now Brock Bowers. No, I really think that the Raiders are going to make the playoffs.
The Raiders have been carrying some really bad QBs to quite decent results for a really long time (2022 Derek Carr was individually quite bad). I happen to know Smayan is really thinking a Gardner Minshew bounce back is coming. On the condition that does, and Gardner plays like it's 2020 again, I don't hate the Raiders as a playoff pick either.
Look. The Bills only have Josh Allen. They've basically lost all their assets. Plus, the Outcome Oracle algorithm (this could or could not be true) states that Keon Coleman is getting injured Week 5.
But it's not all about the QB. He can't do everything alone. For sure, he can run the ball which can make his performance 2x, but that's it. Other teams are 4x or 8x.
I respect your conviction Smayan, and you've made some really aggressive picks here. Some I agree with. Some I disagree with.
First and foremost, the Bills at 6-11 and the Eagles at 13-4. Both of these picks are extraordinarily aggressive and I respect that, but I don't know if I can go that far on either of these squads.
The Eagles were barely playoff calibre last year, with their luck in one possession games being the only reason they made it. I think of them as a nine win team last season, which makes this a big jump to make. It'd require immense improvement out of one of the worst defences in football last year, plus some improvement out of an offence that only ranked seventh in EPA/Play. Onto the Bills.
I have sympathy for your argument as it relates to the Bills. I think that you think that the Bills offence is going to plummet all the way to league average or worse with all the losses, plus a defence that's also going to get dramatically worse, plus some bad luck to bring them all the way down to six wins. I can see the point. I feel like that's asking a lot though with a QB as individually talented as Josh Allen. This is not Justin Herbert (who's been being carried by elite offenses for years). The Bills' offensive players were actually pretty bad last year, and Josh was better than he'd been in a while, and at least they've made the improvement of getting rid of all the useless Stefon Diggs targets that Josh was forcing out last year. I have a hard time seeing how the Buffalo offence can get all the way down to league average, and if they don't they'll never get down to six wins.
The Bengals are going to have to improve a ton to get to 12 wins, but I do agree with your take on Baltimore, so it may get easier for them.
You do love those Indianapolis Colts huh? We've talked about them before. I didn't see it last year. I don't see it this year either, but at least you're consistent about it. Hopefully an NFL offseason has made Anthony Richardson ready for the NFL, because he was very far from ready last season. You snuck the 7-10 Commanders in there real sneakily also. With the rookie QB penalty, that means you believe that with a real NFL QB this Washington team would make the playoffs. Funnily enough, I agree with this. Not bad. We may disagree on the size of the rookie QB penalty, but this is the right direction.
Picking the Giants to get even worse seems harsh, and with the toughest schedule in the NFL picking the 49ers to get just 11 wins is a nice catch. Naturally, you and I are going to disagree on the 6-11 Vikings. I think that's a team with a real chance to make the playoffs, but that's a Darnold thing.
All in all, I like these rankings. I think you're really high on both the Eagles and Colts, but other than that my quibbles are small.
9/15 so far
Yes, let the hangover begin
It's not that big of a hangover. But, I do expect the 49ers to go somewhat far in the playoffs. I'm not sure about a Super Bowl run.
I'm really high on the Commanders and Raiders this year and I would love to pick one of these teams to win the SB.
COMMANDERS AND RAIDERS?? I mean, Commanders have a chance, the east is tough, but WE TALK ABOUT RAIDERS. CONTENDERS THIS YEAR ACCORDING TO YOU?! Ain't happening
Hey I mean look at their roster. One of the most underrated rosters in the league. The defense is shaping up to be amazing and guess who you have on offense? Davante Adams and now Brock Bowers. No, I really think that the Raiders are going to make the playoffs.
At least that
The Raiders have been carrying some really bad QBs to quite decent results for a really long time (2022 Derek Carr was individually quite bad). I happen to know Smayan is really thinking a Gardner Minshew bounce back is coming. On the condition that does, and Gardner plays like it's 2020 again, I don't hate the Raiders as a playoff pick either.
Yeah, you're right.
Bills 6-11 is crazy
Look. The Bills only have Josh Allen. They've basically lost all their assets. Plus, the Outcome Oracle algorithm (this could or could not be true) states that Keon Coleman is getting injured Week 5.
They aren't that terrible right now, Josh Allen is a great QB who will carry this offense. I think they are going 11-6
But it's not all about the QB. He can't do everything alone. For sure, he can run the ball which can make his performance 2x, but that's it. Other teams are 4x or 8x.
I have a feeling James Cook is going to excel this year
Yup. He has no one else (other than maybe Coleman) to compete with meaning yards yards yards.
I respect your conviction Smayan, and you've made some really aggressive picks here. Some I agree with. Some I disagree with.
First and foremost, the Bills at 6-11 and the Eagles at 13-4. Both of these picks are extraordinarily aggressive and I respect that, but I don't know if I can go that far on either of these squads.
The Eagles were barely playoff calibre last year, with their luck in one possession games being the only reason they made it. I think of them as a nine win team last season, which makes this a big jump to make. It'd require immense improvement out of one of the worst defences in football last year, plus some improvement out of an offence that only ranked seventh in EPA/Play. Onto the Bills.
I have sympathy for your argument as it relates to the Bills. I think that you think that the Bills offence is going to plummet all the way to league average or worse with all the losses, plus a defence that's also going to get dramatically worse, plus some bad luck to bring them all the way down to six wins. I can see the point. I feel like that's asking a lot though with a QB as individually talented as Josh Allen. This is not Justin Herbert (who's been being carried by elite offenses for years). The Bills' offensive players were actually pretty bad last year, and Josh was better than he'd been in a while, and at least they've made the improvement of getting rid of all the useless Stefon Diggs targets that Josh was forcing out last year. I have a hard time seeing how the Buffalo offence can get all the way down to league average, and if they don't they'll never get down to six wins.
The Bengals are going to have to improve a ton to get to 12 wins, but I do agree with your take on Baltimore, so it may get easier for them.
You do love those Indianapolis Colts huh? We've talked about them before. I didn't see it last year. I don't see it this year either, but at least you're consistent about it. Hopefully an NFL offseason has made Anthony Richardson ready for the NFL, because he was very far from ready last season. You snuck the 7-10 Commanders in there real sneakily also. With the rookie QB penalty, that means you believe that with a real NFL QB this Washington team would make the playoffs. Funnily enough, I agree with this. Not bad. We may disagree on the size of the rookie QB penalty, but this is the right direction.
Picking the Giants to get even worse seems harsh, and with the toughest schedule in the NFL picking the 49ers to get just 11 wins is a nice catch. Naturally, you and I are going to disagree on the 6-11 Vikings. I think that's a team with a real chance to make the playoffs, but that's a Darnold thing.
All in all, I like these rankings. I think you're really high on both the Eagles and Colts, but other than that my quibbles are small.