New Stat for Articles || The Outcome Oracle || The EI

Edition #135

INTRO:

In the last Olympic articles, I said changed. Here’s the first change you’re going to get.

New Stat

Something that’s troubled me the last few weeks is that I’m not going by analytics. Sometimes, not even by stats. When I do use stats though, I use the basic ones. Examples of these are PPG in basketball, ERA in baseball, and completion percentage in football. Throughout the summer, I’ve been digging deep into more advanced stats. Focusing on basketball and football as my baseball knowledge of advanced statistics goes to a good level.

When predicting the team that’s going to win the game, I use statistics. Player comparison, hot/cold, etc. I feel like things could definitely be more streamlined though. That’s why I decided to create this statistic. Not only that, but the ELO ratings and other statistics that I’ve seen going around here on Substack pretty much inspired me to do this.

So, without further ado, I introduce… The Outcome Oracle!!!

The formula contains some of the most advanced metrics in baseball predicting if a team will win or not.

I will use it for posts where I predict things. Also, I’ll predict the 3 best series of the week’s winners once a week. An AI bot that will calculate it all is coming soon. I’m in the process of building it. It will take time.

THE BAR:

10 or lower: Oracle outcome cannot be trusted. Too close of a game. (Games like Dodgers vs Yankees)

25-11: Oracle outcome is probably right. This is the average that most games will fall on. Things can definitely change. (Games like Phillies vs Mariners)

30 or more: Oracle outcome is most definitely right. Not very many games go this way. A miracle will be needed for the win for the other team. (Games like Dodgers vs White Sox).

EXAMPLE:

Athletics vs Blue Jays. The Blue Jays have a better chance of winning this game. The Outcome Oracle had an EI score of 23 for the Blue Jays to win this game. Therefore, the Oracle is probably right, but the A’s could turn things around.

LAST WORDS:

This is obviously more for predicting the winner. Rankings for postseason and other stuff will come soon. For now, this is a good start.

Currently, I’m only incorporating this in baseball. I’ll get a new prediction system on for the NFL by Week 2 maximum. For the NBA, I’ll get this by the start of the season. Tennis should be coming very soon as well. The focus will be on creating the bot. Code is not a problem. I need to find a platform to host it on. If you have any suggestions, please put it down below.

See ya soon.

-Smayan