March Sports Summit #2 || 3 Winners and Losers of the 2025 Transfer Portal
Edition #225
This is the 2nd part of the quarterly Sports Summit held by Smayan Srikanth, where he brings on amazing writers to collaborate with him on awesome posts. On Tuesday, Smayan, who already has experience collaborating with famous writers on famous news sites, welcomed Cody Manning, a Colts writer for Sporting News, the 17th biggest sports site in the world. Today, Smayan has invited Griffin Olah, who writes
on Substack, to join him. Be sure to subscribe to him!In the upcoming days, you will see a mailbag (you can still enter questions), and then the festivities close out with a record-breaking roundup!
Introduction:
We’re here! The second post of the Sports Summit, and I’m super excited for this one because it features one of my favorite Substack writers this year, Griffin Olah.
I know, and y’all should know by now, that I have absolutely no knowledge of college sports, so instead of our normal Sports Summit posts, in this one, I’m going to be learning quite a bit, and you guys can argue with Griffin instead of me. I’ll be asking the questions, Griffin has the answers. (I’ll still be contributing to the post, with 1 winner and a loser!)
We should have the mailbag post after this one and then the record-breaking roundup! Why are we waiting?! Let’s begin!
Three Winners and Losers of the Transfer Portal Season
Smayan:
So, this is an interesting and very debatable topic, Griffin. The transfer portal season is very important for every single team in college football. I’ve been hearing a lot about Kentucky and Texas Tech. Are they winners or losers, in your opinion?
Griffin:
Before we get into the meat of the winners and losers, we need to talk about context. Context is what drives college football. It’s easy to just base winning and losing off of class rankings, but to find the best list, you have to look at the context of a program’s status, history and trends. True winners are teams that are outperforming expectations or past seasons. True losers are subverting expectations, making puzzling decisions, or just flat out in a bad situation.
Winner: Kentucky
Kentucky may have a polarizing class, especially considering what they lost, but I call them net winners of this cycle. The Wildcats currently hold the ninth-best transfer class in the nation, according to 247Sports’s definitive transfer portal rankings.
Kentucky signed a whopping 19 transfers, 7 of which are four-star players that factor to be immediate impact players for the 2025 season. Head coach Mark Stoops went hard after guys in the trenches, notching four-star commitments from two new starting tackles, two new edge rushers, and a defensive tackle.
Sure, the Wildcats lost a lot, especially when one of the biggest deep ball threats in the nation, wideout Barrion Brown, transferred to LSU. But Stoops did a good job trying to replace that. He rounded out his four-star class with Louisiana Tech wide receiver Tru Edwards, an All-CUSA First Team Honoree in 2024 that paced the team with 77 receptions, 897 yards and six scores. Alabama transfer Kendrick Law also signed with the Wildcats as a dynamic playmaker that could develop to be in the same vein as the departed Brown.
And that’s just the four-stars. There’s impact players scattered around the other signees, like former Nebraska tailback Dante Dowdell, Arkansas interior offensive lineman Joshua Braun and Marshall linebacker Landyn Wilson.
This class gets even more impressive when we consider the context around the program. Stoops has led the Wildcats a long time - 12 years - and has led Kentucky to the bulk of their football success. Success doesn’t always breed good relationships, though. Stoops has become apathetic with donors in trying to get funding, instead asking for more money after bad losses and decrying the state of Kentucky’s NIL efforts.
Toss in a top-10 annual salary at over $9 million a year and not competing for national championships and you get a coach squarely on the hot seat. At least he’s recruiting the portal like his job’s on the line. College football is an adapt or die game, and Stoops adapting as well as he has this offseason is incredibly impressive.
Winner: Texas Tech
If you follow college football, you know the Big 12 Conference is one that’s wide open. Anyone can win it at any time. Just look at Arizona State, who was projected to finish near the bottom of the conference and I expected to miss out on a bowl game before running the table to a conference title and College Football Playoff quarterfinal loss.
Texas Tech has pushed all their chips to the middle of the table, going all in on being this year’s Arizona State. The Red Raiders have come out of nowhere to sign the third-best recruiting class full of high quality, impact players. Of their 17 commits, 11 are four-stars. The class carries an average grade of 89.35.
Even if you look at the players that transferred out, most of them have signed with either Group of Five or FCS schools a subdivision below. Wideout Micah Hudson - transferred to Texas A&M - may be the only major loss in the portal.
Head coach Joey McGuire has done an astounding job with this class. Guys like tackle Howard Sampson (North Carolina), tackle Will Jados (Miami Ohio), interior offensive lineman Hunter Zambrano (Illinois State), defensive lineman Lee Hunter (UCF), cornerback Amier Boyd-Matthews (UTEP), and edge rusher Romello Height (Georgia Tech) all carry grades above 90, meaning they should play well immediately.
Just kicking the scale down to include players with a 90.000 grade adds in five more impact players. This is a well-balanced class with players that can make an impact at all levels across the offense and defense. Even three-star kicker Upton Bellenfant (Buffalo) should be solid for the Red Raiders.
With dynamic quarterback Behren Morton back and a new backup in Mitch Griffis arriving, Texas Tech is primed and ready to go.
Like Kentucky, context makes this class even more impressive. Where Stoops has been actively battling against NIL and the portal, Texas Tech and McGuire have leaned into it. The university just finished a massive upgrade of the south endzone and football center, totalling $243 million and drawing rave reviews. Their NIL collective, The Matador Club, kept cutting checks, blowing past their $5 million budget and eclipsing the $10 million mark. Texas Tech’s general manager James Blanchard spurned Notre Dame of all schools to re-affirm his place in Lubbock.
Texas Tech hasn’t really been a major player since the Michael Crabtree days. If this offseason and the program investment is any clue in, the Red Raiders are positioning themselves as one of the Big 12’s best programs.
Smayan:
Hmmm, very interesting, Griffin. I’m pretty excited about Texas Tech. They seem to have made a lot of key, impactful moves. Surprisingly, I see a lot of names here that I’ve heard before. I’m just thinking about my Eagles right now.
Spring football practice is here, and Kentucky is definitely a team that needs to change its mindset heading into the next season. NIL must take the blame here and there, but in the end, the players are the ones out there, and they’re now being paid to do all this, even at the college level. They should put some effort into getting the Natty.
Another thing we need to realize with Kentucky, though, and with college sports in general, is that while they’re being paid, they’re not adults. They’re not in the NFL. Locker room relationships really matter (they do in the NFL, but there are leeways out).
Texas Tech is going to be an amazing team this next college football season. I really think that this team needs to be in conversations for who’s going to win it all next year.
Let’s get to the losers now. Griffin, who are the 2 you have?
Griffin:
Loser: USC
In my eyes, the first loser is USC.
Taking a look at the Trojans’ class, it doesn’t seem that bad. They’re ranked 19th in the nation with 12 incoming transfers. Of those 12, five are four-stars carrying at least a 90.00 grade.
Again, it’s the context that matters.
USC under Lincoln Riley has been a mystery. Sure, the Caleb Williams years were full of explosive, fun offenses and a Heisman trophy for the eventual No. 1 overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. But the defenses were atrocious and the team never won anything.
Lincoln Riley set out to fix that, ousting football terrorist and so-called defensive coordinator Alex Grinch for an established name like D’Anton Lynn to install a more physical, competitive defense. And that worked, with the Trojans moving up to 77th in total defense and 56th in scoring defense. Not the best marks, but respectable, especially when compared to the Grinch years.
But then the offense took a massive step back. There were a few shining spots like tailback Woody Marks and wideout Zachariah Branch, but the quarterback situation was a mess where neither Miller Moss or Jayden Maiava performed.
Well, things just got worse. Miller Moss is gone to Louisville. Branch has enrolled at Georgia. Wideout Duce Robinson is at Florida State. Tackle Mason Murphy is at Auburn. Tailback Quinten Joyner, who didn’t get the most playing time behind Marks but still flashed, joined that standout Texas Tech class. Defensive lineman Bear Alexander is off to Oregon.
The incoming class doesn’t have much to show to replace those four-stars with at least a 90.00 score. Sure, Keeshawn Silver from Kentucky may replace Alexander. But the other standouts are interior offensive linemen. An important position, but maybe not one of USC’s main needs.
Wide receiver is still wide open, with Prince Strachan from Boise State, a three-star with an 86.00 grade, is the highest rated signee. I do like the Eli Sanders pickup at tailback from New Mexico.
Let’s keep in mind the context here. Lincoln Riley was hailed as the offensive guru, one of the best minds in the sport. One of the heralds of the portal era after succeeding with transfers Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray at Oklahoma. He recruited and brought Williams with him from Oklahoma to USC. And now, the offense is full of question marks.
Namely, who is playing quarterback? Are they really going to let it ride with Maiava again? They did bring in former five-star Sam Huard, who’s on his fourth school in five seasons and hasn’t put up decent numbers anywhere.
For a school focused on offense, losing that many weapons and refusing to replace them is perplexing to put it lightly. Especially with the shine all but gone from the Lincoln Riley hire. This has the chance to be a catastrophic class for USC.
Loser: NC State
Our other main loser is the NC State Wolfpack. The 2024 season was a much hyped one by outsiders looking in, especially when considering transfer quarterback Grayson McCall and budding star wideout KC Concepcion with what should have been a strong offense.
That didn’t happen. The Wolfpack floundered to a 6-7 mark and a 3-5 record in ACC play. McCall was a disappointment and there really wasn’t anything to hang their hats on.
That’s a major departure from what we’d expect from a Dave Doeren coached team, but things have just gotten worse.
Concepcion, the main star on the roster, hit the portal and now is enrolled at Texas A&M. McCall ran out of eligibility, so there’s a pending quarterback battle and no clear heir on the roster.
Concepcion wasn’t the only loss, though. NC State had four major contributors with four-star grades - including Concepcion - hit the portal and leave. Their secondary was decimated, with the top three safeties on the roster all finding new homes. Linebacker coach Jake Ellsworth was poached by Group of Five Marshall and he brought four quality defensive players along with him.
Remember, defense was this team’s calling card. It sure doesn’t look like that will be the case in 2025.
But that’s a lot of talk about the losses across the board. What did Doeren and his staff bring into NC State?
Not a whole lot. All told, NC State signed 10 transfers during the winter window. Of those 10, all are three stars graded below 90.00.
For a Power Four team that had conference title aspirations last year, that’s incredibly alarming. There are some players I expect to play immediately, especially defensive backs Jaren Sensabaugh (Missouri) and Jeremiah Johnson (Georgia State), but can they replace the quality of players leaving?
Not to mention, there’s not a quarterback on this roster that wows me. Doeren went portal shopping in recent years for his signal caller and both the Brennan Armstrong and Grayson McCall experiments failed. C.J. Bailey factors to be the starter after a solid nine-game freshman showing last season, but he didn’t do much to raise the level of this team.
However, Bailey did flash some potential. But that was with major contributors like Concepcion. Can he replicate that with the 2025 version of the Wolfpack?
That remains to be seen. Either way, I do believe that Doeren is a great ball coach and should be able to get this team competitive. The problem is that’s all they’ve been. Competitive. 12 years in, it’s time to get something to show for it. He pushed his chips all in the past few seasons and came up empty. I’m just curious as to why he’s not going all-in again, especially as some heat gets turned on under his seat.
Smayan:
Interesting.
I wanna pitch in here as well, so here is my 1 winner and loser of the transfer portal this year.
Winner: Oregon
I wanna start with Oregon. They had very high expectations last year. I remember hearing analysts predict they would win the Natty several times last year. Heck, they entered the CFP Playoffs as the top team, coming in at 13-0! They won the Big Ten and made it to the CFP quarterfinal, where they got trashed by the Ohio State Buckeyes. It was a blowout, to say the least.
At least 11 people graduated from Oregon last year, but it’s good that none of those players were high-name sort of players. Not to say that they aren’t any good, but these guys didn’t play a huge role for Oregon during the 2024 campaign. Oregon is simply doing the recycle-reuse process.
They added Isaiah World, Emmanuel Pregnon, Alex Harkey, Makhi Hughes, Jamari Johnson, and Malik Benson. They also added Bear Alexander (USC), Theran Johnson, and Dillon Thieneman.
Loser: Arizona
At this point, at least from what I’ve seen, this Arizona Wildcats squad is in the midst of a full rebuild. Right now, 30 players have entered the portal, with key names such as Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei, Jacob Manu, Emmanuel Karnley, Gunnar Maldonado, Wendell Moe, Keyan Burnett, and Tacario Davis. That is a hella lot of players, and some huge losses for this Wildcats team.
Griffin, what are your thoughts on these?
Griffin:
Those are some great picks!
Oregon definitely built an under the radar good class. While they lost some key contributors like Dillon Gabriel and Tez Johnson to graduation/the Draft, Dan Lanning has done a great job building up his rosters.
They bulked up big-time in the trenches with Pregnon and five-star Isaiah World. I really like the additions of Makhi Hughes from Tulane and Dillon Thieneman from Purdue. Toss in Dante Moore after a season of development and the Ducks should have national championship buzz again.
I’m right with you on Arizona as well. They’re heading into Year 2 under Brent Brennan, who I thought was a great hire at the time. Early returns show I was dead wrong about that. The offense, Brennan’s calling card, was abysmal and led to a midseason coordinator change when Dino Babers was shown the door.
Pair that with 30(!) portal entrants and there’s a crisis on Brennan’s hands. Jedd Fisch, Arizona’s previous coach and second-year head man at Washington, poached this roster again, adding impact players like Tacario Davis and Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei. Like you said, the Wildcats are losing a ton of players.
What’s more concerning for me is that Brennan signed 25 prospects, but none of them eclipse a 87.00 grade. There aren’t impact players coming in to replace these key departures. It’s not the end of the world, but this is a growing scary trend for the Arizona program.
2025 is going to be a pivotal year for the Wildcats. Brennan will need to get Noah Fifita back on track without his top target in Tetairoa McMillan and without those key portal departures like Davis and Uiagalelei.
Smayan:
Absolutely.
Thanks for reading and tuning into this one. Be sure to like this post to support Griffin and me. The mailbag should be tomorrow, but you guys still have time to enter some questions, so you can comment them down below, put them in the subscriber chat, or on one of my latest Substack notes!
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and !The 25-26 CFB season is going to be epic!
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Another great read! Love this!
Anyone who leads off an article in a positive way with my Alma Mater, UK, knows what it's talking about. After a 4 win season it is good to see the roster get retooled. Get the Big Blue Wall back in place.