"No QB worse" than Jalen Hurts? Come on. I understand that was probably a comedic sentence, but I can debate the merits of Deshaun Watson vs Jalen Hurts and I suspect I'll win. Even if you meant to say you were factoring in the contact, I still think I'll win. There's hyperbole, and then there's satire. I did laugh BTW. You got me.
You probably expected this (I feel like I was at least partially in your mind when you wrote the CPOE dismissal), but I entirely disagree with you. He does have seven turnovers in four starts. That's a lot, but it's not really up from last season, where he had 20 in 17 games, so if his turnover rate isn't up, perhaps his turnovers are especially costly? No. On a per play basis, Gardner Minshew, Patrick Mahomes, Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, Jordan Love, Jacoby Brissett, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis have all had more costly turnovers than Jalen Hurts.
So if the turnover rate isn't up, and situationally, Jalen is nowhere near the top of the league as far as having his turnovers come at the wrong time, this leads me to believe that turnovers are not the problem, and I'm correct. They're not. When including turnovers, Jalen is 21st in EPA/Play right now. Entirely excluding turnovers, he only jumps to 18th, meaning turnovers are not the problem, so what is the problem?
You are correct about the sack rate comments. It is creeping up, but we are only four games into the season. If it continues by about week 10 or so, we can be concerned about it then, so what is the problem? Quite frankly, I don't know. This is not like Geno Smith, a player who is fantastic on first and second but horrendous on third and fourth downs. Jalen isn't particularly good any time results-wise. As far as 2024, I'd like to give it a little longer to play out, because he was fantastic last season dragging along a defence hellbent on destroying the season to double digit wins, in a carry job that nobody seems to want to talk about.
Jalen has been fantastic at avoiding negative plays for multiple seasons now (turnovers are not the only type of negative play), so I have no reason not to believe that won't continue if we give this all a few more weeks to play out. I say just give it a few weeks. If Jalen is still underperforming come week 11, we can revisit this issue, but for now, there's no way you can call this man the most overrated QB in an NFL that includes CJ Stroud, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, and Jordan Love in it. To me, it's a five man race for that crown, and Jalen is not one of the five.
By the way, his CPOE is 5.6. That's third in the NFL. For that reason, I just can't bring myself to class this as individual regression. Eagles offensive regression? Yes. Clearly, but I'm not comfortable putting all (or even most) of this on Jalen, at least not until I get more information.
You see, I'm not exactly talking about turnovers at the wrong time. I'm talking about why turnovers prove that he's the most overrated QB in the NFL. He has one of the best OL in the game, some of the best WR (who didn't play vs the Bucs, but even so, turnovers don't matter). At this point. I'm not even talking about the wins or the losses. I'm specifically talking about play.
We'll see who bests each other this week when the Eagles play the Browns. I'm sure that Deshaun Watson will best Jalen Hurts. Thanks for the kind words at the top and yes I did refer to you for the CPOE.
I can call him the most overrated because he has 27 turnovers since the start of the 2023 season. That's not all. Ever since his peak 2022 season, everything has been down/up (whichever is bad) as you saw in the chart above. 25% of QB Red Zone turnovers in the NFL season through 5 weeks is a bit too much, and they've already hit their bye week.
He's becoming Carson Wentz and that should definitely get you to the most overrated category.
I like what your saying, and I understand, but it just doesn't seem to connect the whole picture to me.
You're right about the O-Line (I don't specialise in grading O-Line play, but their ninth in Ben Baldwin's pass block measure, and I can accept that) and the receivers, because at least Devonta Smith has been around most of the time, and Dallas Goedert is turning back the clock so far.
This is what I was getting at. If the turnovers aren't the problem and the sacks aren't the problem (yet) and the supporting cast isn't the problem and the individual talent isn't the problem (indicated by the CPOE), what's the problem? This only leaves a few options. Offensive coaching can be the problem. Poor circumstances can be the problem. Bad timing can be the problem. This is why I want to give it a few more weeks before I actually form an opinion. I just can't figure out what the problem is.
He's throwing significantly shorter passes this year, and that seems to me like it might be the problem, but I'm going to give it a bit for that to stabilise. If it stays bad though, my hypothesis is the aDoT until proven otherwise, which sucks, because that's a hybrid Jalen-offensive coaching problem, and tough to fix.
How can you be so sure that Deshaun Watson will best Jalen Hurts? Deshaun Watson sucks and Jalen Hurts doesn't. Isn't that enough to prove you wrong? Come on buddy. I know you're an Eagles downer, but let's be a bit realistic here.
This is cheeky of me to mention... but his CPOE is up since 2022. Just saying. In more seriousness, red zone performance is a really noisy statistical category. Expect regression to the mean there, whether a player is bad or good. In this case, it's bad but is sure to get better.
He is not becoming Carson Wentz. Carson Wentz was always overrated, especially in 2017 (0.5 CPOE translating to such a good season says more about the Eagles than it does about him), and nobody should've been surprised when he was mid after a big injury. This is not that. To my knowledge, there's been no big injury, and Jalen has not posted a CPOE near zero yet. Once he does, I'll let you know. Trust me. I haven't stopped screaming about CJ (mid) Stroud yet, and I wouldn't stop screaming about Jalen either.
I wish I could connect the whole picture. It would be easy for me at this moment to say 'go back to throwing longer passes,' but that's the only inkling of a fix I have.
Nah, I'm a huge Eagles fan. Am I really commenting like an Eagles downer lol?
He's throwing shorter passes because he doesn't have the arm, and he doesn't have very good accuracy when throwing downfield. Jalen needs to start running the ball like he should. If he wasn't a QB, he would make a good RB. In 2022, when he was at his peak, he ran for 760 yards. That number continued to drop after his QB session with Tom Brady which eventually turned things for the worse for Jalen. Turnovers are still a huge problem.
I was a huge Jalen Hurts guy last year, as I said in the article, but he needs to step up his game. He has such a good offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore. Jalen Hurts has been incredibly inconsistent and we just can't blame it on Moore, because he's doing his part.
I'm not gonna rave about Stroud because I wasn't big on him either, but hear me out. He's not mid, but he's not amazing either. I feel like he's in the middle of the pack for QBs. Throwing for 300+ yards a game is something.
Once again, I see what you're saying and you have a point, but I know for a fact that Jalen is overrated. He can turn it around after the bye week, but historically speaking, that's not happened. I love Jalen and as an Eagles fan, I hope he turns things around quickly.
Ever since that wild OT win against the Buffalo Bills last year, Hurts has never looked the same. The Eagles never looked like the team that dominated 2022-23 and the first 12 weeks of 2023-24. And I love it as a Washington Commanders fan.
As somebody who has Hurts on their fantasy team — I couldn’t agree more. Even without Brown, they’ve still got playmakers at all skill positions, one of the best OLs in the league, and they’ve got Kellen Moore as an OC. This team is underachieving like mad, and Hurts needs to step up.
"No QB worse" than Jalen Hurts? Come on. I understand that was probably a comedic sentence, but I can debate the merits of Deshaun Watson vs Jalen Hurts and I suspect I'll win. Even if you meant to say you were factoring in the contact, I still think I'll win. There's hyperbole, and then there's satire. I did laugh BTW. You got me.
You probably expected this (I feel like I was at least partially in your mind when you wrote the CPOE dismissal), but I entirely disagree with you. He does have seven turnovers in four starts. That's a lot, but it's not really up from last season, where he had 20 in 17 games, so if his turnover rate isn't up, perhaps his turnovers are especially costly? No. On a per play basis, Gardner Minshew, Patrick Mahomes, Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, Jordan Love, Jacoby Brissett, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis have all had more costly turnovers than Jalen Hurts.
So if the turnover rate isn't up, and situationally, Jalen is nowhere near the top of the league as far as having his turnovers come at the wrong time, this leads me to believe that turnovers are not the problem, and I'm correct. They're not. When including turnovers, Jalen is 21st in EPA/Play right now. Entirely excluding turnovers, he only jumps to 18th, meaning turnovers are not the problem, so what is the problem?
You are correct about the sack rate comments. It is creeping up, but we are only four games into the season. If it continues by about week 10 or so, we can be concerned about it then, so what is the problem? Quite frankly, I don't know. This is not like Geno Smith, a player who is fantastic on first and second but horrendous on third and fourth downs. Jalen isn't particularly good any time results-wise. As far as 2024, I'd like to give it a little longer to play out, because he was fantastic last season dragging along a defence hellbent on destroying the season to double digit wins, in a carry job that nobody seems to want to talk about.
Jalen has been fantastic at avoiding negative plays for multiple seasons now (turnovers are not the only type of negative play), so I have no reason not to believe that won't continue if we give this all a few more weeks to play out. I say just give it a few weeks. If Jalen is still underperforming come week 11, we can revisit this issue, but for now, there's no way you can call this man the most overrated QB in an NFL that includes CJ Stroud, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, and Jordan Love in it. To me, it's a five man race for that crown, and Jalen is not one of the five.
By the way, his CPOE is 5.6. That's third in the NFL. For that reason, I just can't bring myself to class this as individual regression. Eagles offensive regression? Yes. Clearly, but I'm not comfortable putting all (or even most) of this on Jalen, at least not until I get more information.
I can definitely put this on Jalen.
You see, I'm not exactly talking about turnovers at the wrong time. I'm talking about why turnovers prove that he's the most overrated QB in the NFL. He has one of the best OL in the game, some of the best WR (who didn't play vs the Bucs, but even so, turnovers don't matter). At this point. I'm not even talking about the wins or the losses. I'm specifically talking about play.
We'll see who bests each other this week when the Eagles play the Browns. I'm sure that Deshaun Watson will best Jalen Hurts. Thanks for the kind words at the top and yes I did refer to you for the CPOE.
I can call him the most overrated because he has 27 turnovers since the start of the 2023 season. That's not all. Ever since his peak 2022 season, everything has been down/up (whichever is bad) as you saw in the chart above. 25% of QB Red Zone turnovers in the NFL season through 5 weeks is a bit too much, and they've already hit their bye week.
He's becoming Carson Wentz and that should definitely get you to the most overrated category.
I like what your saying, and I understand, but it just doesn't seem to connect the whole picture to me.
You're right about the O-Line (I don't specialise in grading O-Line play, but their ninth in Ben Baldwin's pass block measure, and I can accept that) and the receivers, because at least Devonta Smith has been around most of the time, and Dallas Goedert is turning back the clock so far.
This is what I was getting at. If the turnovers aren't the problem and the sacks aren't the problem (yet) and the supporting cast isn't the problem and the individual talent isn't the problem (indicated by the CPOE), what's the problem? This only leaves a few options. Offensive coaching can be the problem. Poor circumstances can be the problem. Bad timing can be the problem. This is why I want to give it a few more weeks before I actually form an opinion. I just can't figure out what the problem is.
He's throwing significantly shorter passes this year, and that seems to me like it might be the problem, but I'm going to give it a bit for that to stabilise. If it stays bad though, my hypothesis is the aDoT until proven otherwise, which sucks, because that's a hybrid Jalen-offensive coaching problem, and tough to fix.
How can you be so sure that Deshaun Watson will best Jalen Hurts? Deshaun Watson sucks and Jalen Hurts doesn't. Isn't that enough to prove you wrong? Come on buddy. I know you're an Eagles downer, but let's be a bit realistic here.
This is cheeky of me to mention... but his CPOE is up since 2022. Just saying. In more seriousness, red zone performance is a really noisy statistical category. Expect regression to the mean there, whether a player is bad or good. In this case, it's bad but is sure to get better.
He is not becoming Carson Wentz. Carson Wentz was always overrated, especially in 2017 (0.5 CPOE translating to such a good season says more about the Eagles than it does about him), and nobody should've been surprised when he was mid after a big injury. This is not that. To my knowledge, there's been no big injury, and Jalen has not posted a CPOE near zero yet. Once he does, I'll let you know. Trust me. I haven't stopped screaming about CJ (mid) Stroud yet, and I wouldn't stop screaming about Jalen either.
I wish I could connect the whole picture. It would be easy for me at this moment to say 'go back to throwing longer passes,' but that's the only inkling of a fix I have.
Nah, I'm a huge Eagles fan. Am I really commenting like an Eagles downer lol?
He's throwing shorter passes because he doesn't have the arm, and he doesn't have very good accuracy when throwing downfield. Jalen needs to start running the ball like he should. If he wasn't a QB, he would make a good RB. In 2022, when he was at his peak, he ran for 760 yards. That number continued to drop after his QB session with Tom Brady which eventually turned things for the worse for Jalen. Turnovers are still a huge problem.
I was a huge Jalen Hurts guy last year, as I said in the article, but he needs to step up his game. He has such a good offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore. Jalen Hurts has been incredibly inconsistent and we just can't blame it on Moore, because he's doing his part.
I'm not gonna rave about Stroud because I wasn't big on him either, but hear me out. He's not mid, but he's not amazing either. I feel like he's in the middle of the pack for QBs. Throwing for 300+ yards a game is something.
Once again, I see what you're saying and you have a point, but I know for a fact that Jalen is overrated. He can turn it around after the bye week, but historically speaking, that's not happened. I love Jalen and as an Eagles fan, I hope he turns things around quickly.
Ever since that wild OT win against the Buffalo Bills last year, Hurts has never looked the same. The Eagles never looked like the team that dominated 2022-23 and the first 12 weeks of 2023-24. And I love it as a Washington Commanders fan.
Everything has went wrong for the man. Sacks, interceptions, and more. You're right.
P.S. Jayden Daniels is falling off this week.
As somebody who has Hurts on their fantasy team — I couldn’t agree more. Even without Brown, they’ve still got playmakers at all skill positions, one of the best OLs in the league, and they’ve got Kellen Moore as an OC. This team is underachieving like mad, and Hurts needs to step up.
Completely agree. Hurts need to step up his game.