How Money Can’t Buy Wins

Edition #82

INTRO:

The Warriors, Bucks, Suns, and Clippers are eliminated from the 2024 NBA Playoffs/Play-In. All of these teams are in the top 4 for money spent.

Meanwhile, this team made 

Money can’t do everything for you. Whether it’s in sports, or in real life, it can only take you so far.

I’m back with Jacob Sutton to talk about How Money Can’t Buy Wins. The Orlando Magic prove it. They have the lowest payroll in basketball, and they MADE THE PLAYOFFS! Meanwhile, the Dubs didn’t.

What. Is Happening?!

Money = or  ≠ Wins?

Jacob: Money is a strange thing in the NBA. Some owners throw it around like it’s nothing, while others are cheap as can be – and it shows (cough cough former Suns owner Robert Sarver). However, we’ve largely gone the way of superteam building over the past decade, watching as owners continually dip into the luxury tax as they chase championship hopes. The main problem, as you mentioned above, Smayan, is that doesn’t always work out. 

The Lob City Clippers had their issues with this conundrum as well. Having Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, and Jamal Crawford seemed like it would be a guaranteed championship – and yet, they never even made the Conference Finals. That didn’t quite stop teams from backing up the Brinks truck to try to form superteams, however. 

Of course, the 2016-17 Warriors did it successfully with Kevin Durant, bringing about the superteam era we are seeing teams being punished for today. I think the key difference in what we’re seeing with the Clippers, Bucks, and Suns as opposed to the Durant-Warriors era is this: the Warriors didn’t jeopardize their future. 

Each of the previously mentioned teams has traded away almost every single pick available to put together their rosters, going full boom-or-bust. The Warriors, on the other hand, were still left with multiple lottery-level picks after KD left, therefore somewhat preserving the future of the franchise – Jonathan Kuminga is proof of that. For the Suns, this could mean floundering until 2031, while the Bucks have few options except the nuclear ones: trading Dame or – dare I say it – Giannis Antetokoumpo. 

What are your thoughts, Smayan? Is it more of a superteam issue or a payroll issue?

Smayan:

This is for sure a superteam issue.

I think I would agree with the NBA on the salary cap aspect, but probably only in this point of view. 

Look, it’s all business. The NBA wants more people to watch its sport. If you have all the stars on one team, then they’re going to hit big in that market, but why would anyone else want to watch their hometown basketball team which is without star players? Now, yes, die-hard fans will, but I’m talking about the normal population.

Here’s the thing about the Suns… They weren’t making smart decisions.

Sure, getting players like Booker and Durant would take you big time in the long run (the Dodgers prove it), but without prospects, you can’t build your next generation. Let’s go back to my MLB example. The Dodgers may have star players like Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts, but they also got rookies mashing. Andy Pages, Corey Seager, Michael Busch, and Cody Bellinger are just a few of the alumni. For an NBA example, look at this year! They had Steph Curry on the same court as Podz! And Trayce Jackson-Davis. They’re building the next generation with the oldies. A learning opportunity (Packers Jordan Love proves it).

That leads me to a question. What do you think is more important? The Draft or Free Agency? And, no, you can’t say both. I’m throwing you into a loophole here  😅.

Jacob: The draft, one-hundred percent — and even more so now. With the new second apron rules and other CBA stipulations preventing teams from easily buying their way to wins, cheap, good contracts are more valuable than ever. 

Of course, the Thunder are the poster child for this theory. Under normal circumstances, one would not be able to sign both Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams without dipping into some significant cash based purely upon their skill sets. Yet, by drafting them with their incredible amount of first-rounders, the Thunder effectively have them locked into all-too-cheap rookie contracts.

Free agency helps under certain circumstances — those circumstances involve setting the foundation first, most likely via the draft. Without setting a proper foundation, you run into issues that the KD/Kyrie/Harden Nets did, the current Clippers (who directly fueled the OKC Thunder’s run by trading Paul George for SGA and picks, no less), and others have endured.

Without the draft, teams can’t compete. Cheap contracts are necessary under all circumstances.

Smayan:

I do see your point, but I believe that free agency may be the most important.

You see, you’re getting guys of various ages in free agency. Sure, you will not be able to get Kevin Durant every year, but that’s the same thing with the draft. You can’t find a Wembanyama everywhere. But, back to various ages. You’ll be able to get guys who got picked in the draft, but their team didn’t need that position. You can also get star players. Or you can get veterans but can’t get all of that in the draft.

But, I see your point, and just like you said the Thunder are a great example of that. In the draft, you can get guys that are young, and more refurbished. Though, here’s the thing. Can you get an experienced player in the draft? 

Experience wins championships. Sometimes it doesn’t, but most of the time it’s like that. The playoffs are entirely different from the regular season. Steph Curry proves it.

Jacob. Let’s zoom into these Suns because they’re kinda fricked up here. You start it off. 

Jacob: Yeah, there really aren’t many options. Sure, you can fire your coach (which they did), despite the fact that you dealt him a bad hand to begin with. After all, Frank Vogel is a defensively-minded coach who was given three volume shooters surrounded by mediocrity; not exactly a perfect fit.

Due to the new second apron and other CBA rules, the Suns won’t be able to use their mid-level exception to sign players, have trade salary restrictions, and more. In other words, the only option they have is to run it back with their current roster unless one of KD/Booker/Beal asks out — only one of those would be coveted for the price tag, however, and I’d bet it’s Booker.

It’s pretty much a dead end and a gamble on those three meshing together better. Regardless, this team is likely going to be hampered from a draft and cap perspective till at least 2029, possibly longer.

Smayan. How do you think the Suns navigate their lack of draft capital and other limitations? Is there a path to a deep playoff run next season?

Smayan:

Matt Ishbia isn’t that dumb. No, getting a new coach is not going to fit the woes that the Suns are facing. But, trading Booker or Beal will be the first step to a team that I think is going to start a complete rebuild. KD is too old to play after his Suns contract. He’ll be, what, 40? They’re going to have to try to run it back, just like you said, but even if they make the playoffs, do they have a fallback option? No.

A deep playoff run is possible next season, but that’s only up to the core three. If they don’t show up, then that’s not happening. The Phoenix Suns are in a win-now cost-later situation and if they don’t benefit from it, this is going to be known as one of the worst periods of management ever.

But enough with the gloomy. One of the best teams sporting a “dynasty” brand is the Thunder or maybe even the T-Wolves.

The Timberwolves have people ranging from Rudy Gobert to Anthony Edwards (new MJ?). They have veterans, but their strongest player is young. But, you’re forgetting KAT or Naz Reid. It’s such a strong foundation. I mean, I’m in love with it.

What about the Thunder, Jacob? I mean SGA & Chet Holmgren to Gordon Hayward. I mean, woah.

Jacob: The Thunder have been widely exceptional despite their much-talked-about youth. While I’m not at all mad about Jokic winning MVP, there was a real case for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to take home the award considering just how much he’s lifted this squad up – and how valuable he is from a general perspective. 

The Mavs are a tough test, though, especially as Doncic appears to have caught his stride and the “other guys” like PJ Washington are showing off their playoff chops themselves. The Thunder can’t stop Doncic, so they’re likely going to have to beat them via a balanced attack. Jalen Williams has been impressive, Isaiah Joe has been a phenomenal bench guy, and – while his rebounding has been largely stifled by the likes of Daniel Gafford – Chet Holmgren is the essential big man this team needs. 

Plus, even if they do flame out this year, they’re young enough to be a perennial contender. Good vibes in OKC.

Smayan:

I completely agree.

I wanted to finish this piece by talking about LeBron James.

Just a few days back, we got the news that LAL wants to keep LeBron long-term. After the Lakers lost in the playoffs, LeBron stated that playing with Bronny might not be a priority. 

This piece was not supposed to be this piece. Actually, Jacob and I were planning on writing potential landing spots for LeBron, but once we found out about LeBron’s wishes, we turned it into this.

LeBron is going to stay with the Lakers. They seem keen on keeping him and although playing with Bronny doesn’t even matter anymore to him, they still want to draft him. Safe to say that instead of the Lakers being called the Lakers, they should be called the LeBrons.

There were also many reports about LeBron being a player-coach. Is that possible? Yes. But, LeBron wants to win a championship. Coaching is a hard job. That’s why you see so many of them being fired basically every year. That hard job plus playing? What is he supposed to concentrate on?

Conclusion

Smayan:

And, that’s the end of this piece. If you enjoyed this, be sure to subscribe to JSuttHoops and Sports Square. 

We do these collabs regularly so stay tuned for the next one!