Conference Championship Preview

Edition #226

The NFL season is almost over. Can you believe that? I can’t.

But… almost over doesn’t mean anything, because we still have 3 more games to go before every team gets into the offseason. Bills vs Chiefs in the AFC Championship. Commanders vs Eagles in the NFC Championship. The winners face off for the Lombardi trophy in New Orleans.

So, what fun is it without a preview from Sports Square? We’re going to look at everything about these 4 teams and continue the predictions. This should be a lot of fun, so stick around.

LAST CALL:

Sports Square is thinking about expanding big time in 2025, and the best way we can do that is to get your input. All it takes is one minute, and done! If you’re subscribed to this, that means you find some value in this newsletter. What if we can make that word “some,” to “incredible”? We can do that if you fill out the survey.

AFC Championship:

Bills vs Chiefs. A classic matchup. The Bills have always been classified as a weakness for the Chiefs because they need to try their very hardest to win against this team. In the regular season, the Bills do well enough to break an undefeated season, but in the playoffs, the Bills just can't catch a break against the Chiefs. Mahomes is 3-0. Overall, Mahomes is 4-4 against Josh Allen.

After the Stefon Diggs trade, many of the top analysts didn't see the Bills going to even the AFC Championship. On paper, the WR room was absolute garbage, and the defense wasn't all it either.

Now the game is on Sunday at 6:30 P.M. EST. According to ESPN, the Buffalo Bills have a 54.6% chance to win the game against the KC Chiefs. When the Bills and Chiefs met in week 11, they won 30-21, breaking the Chiefs’ undefeated season, and really being their only real loss (the Chiefs’ other loss would be to the Broncos, but Kansas City did not play any of their starters).

Travis Kelce hasn’t had the best of years this season and has been incredibly criticized for his play, but he’s on track to break a playoff TD record set by Jerry Rice and is only 220 yards short of breaking Jerry Rice’s playoff yards record. If he just gets 2 big games here, and the Super Bowl ring, could we really see Kelce retire?

More than this, Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and JuJu Smith-Schuster did not catch a single pass, meaning that the Chiefs beat the Texans just off feeding Travis Kelce. Xavier Worthy didn’t do all that well.

What the Bills did in the divisional round showed two things. One, this team has the grit and the fire to win. Two, they can finally close the game out.

The whole problem with the Bills in the postseason is the fact that they’re not good when it gets down to crunch time. Unfortunately, if you take a look at the Chiefs, they may not play to the greatest level for the first 3 quarters, but they’re always hanging in there and can make you pay if you can’t convert in the final period.

During the game vs Bills, you could say they almost played like the Chiefs. Although a bit of luck gave them the push to the finish line, the Bills held on for as long as they could in that final quarter and made sure to finish the game right, to take the win.

The receivers I mentioned earlier, who failed to catch a pass, might be key to the Bills' demise. The Bills rank 24th in pass defense, allowing 28 TDs this season, and have allowed 3 TDs in the postseason. The Chiefs, with basically only Travis Kelce, beat the 6th rank pass defense in the Texans.

The Chiefs aren’t so good on the pass defense end either, ranking 18th, just 6 ahead.

Xavier Worthy will be the key player for the Chiefs. He already had a big game versus the Bills in their first matchup this season and could be in line for another one. Rasul Douglas and Terrel Bernard are going to be the key guys for the Bills. Travis Kelce needs to be heavily guarded and the same goes for their receivers. If they can slow down Mahomes’ options, then things will be looking good.

An honorable mention for the Bills would be Tyler Bass. If he misses a kick during the final moments, the Bills really might be screwed. It happened last year. It could happen again. An honorable mention for the Chiefs would be Chris Jones. Stopping James Cook and Josh Allen should be a huge message to the Chiefs’ defense.

The Bills may not have looked like the best team in the world at the start of the season, but they sure do look better than the Chiefs. We all know what the Chiefs can do in clutch moments. The Chiefs may be America’s team, but America wants the Chiefs to lose.

NFC Championship:

So, by now, most of you know that I’m a pretty big Philadelphia Eagles fan. I’m also one of the biggest Jayden Daniels haters, trying to convince people that he isn’t as good as he is (Bo Nix, my friends).

So, all in all, for me, this matchup has all the marbles riding on it. It’s going to be absolute firecrackers too, so not sure what was the reason they put this at 3:00 P.M. EST.

The current projection for the Eagles is that they’re going to win by about 5.1 points, and have a 63.7% chance of winning this week.

---

HISTORY LESSON:

The Eagles and the Commanders last met in the playoffs in 1990, where the Commanders won 20-6.

---

During the season, the Washington Commanders and the Eagles split the series, with the Eagles taking the first game 26-18 against a partially injured Jayden Daniels, and the Commanders taking the second game 36-33, with Jalen Hurts exiting the game early.

Jayden Daniels didn’t do that bad against the Eagles this season, throwing for 449 passing yards, a 78.2 QBR, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. But the man of the Eagles, the current face of the franchise, Saquon Barkley, has been absolutely amazing against the Commanders, averaging 137 yards. According to ESPN Research, “the only player to average more scrimmage yards against a single opponent in NFL history is Hall of Famer Jim Brown against the Eagles”.

For the Eagles, the X-Factor is going to be their defense (at this point, it obviously is going to be), as is Saquon Barkley. Washington had the 3rd worst run defense in the NFL, and given his track record above, if Saquon Barkley goes off, this game might as well be over. Barkley has been the reason the Eagles have even come so far, and he might be the reason the Eagles make the Super Bowl.

If we’re going to talk about the defense, we need to look more specifically at the defensive front. Getting to the QB is going to be incredibly important, and the Eagles are in a good position for that. The Eagles have Jalen Carter, who has 6.5 sacks, 28 pressures, and 14 tackles for loss this season (incl. playoffs), and also have Nolan Smith, who has 12 QB pressures in the playoffs. If they can get to the quarterback, and the secondary takes advantage of Jayden Daniels throwing under pressure, there’s a chance that the Eagles could seal the game, just like they have already done in the postseason, with just defense. Daniels is incredibly dynamic, but the Eagles’ defense can limit his amazing plays if the D-line shows up.

For the Commanders, offense shouldn't be the focus either. While stopping Saquon Barkley seems impossible, if the Commanders even want a shot at winning, they need to stop him. Rush defense should be an absolute priority. More than this, Jalen Hurts is already struggling to pass the ball. When he does, the Commanders secondary needs to take advantage. This Commanders team needs to create turnovers. That way, even if they get stopped by the Eagles’ defense, which is bound to happen, they still have a bit of a gap.

We know that the Eagles will have an amazing defensive attack. Another team that accomplished this same feat in the divisional round was the Washington Commanders, who had 35% of the turnovers they had in the regular season and are now in the postseason.

The Eagles are going to be tough to beat. The Eagles are better at almost every single position except QB, injured Hurts or not (I know you will disagree

Robbie Marriage

). Unfortunately, because of injuries, Detroit had to blitz quite a bit, and if the Eagles do the same, that’s going to be a problem.

If we’re going to talk about the Commanders, it’s going to be all offense. The Commanders have scored 30 points or more in almost 62% of their wins this season (incl. playoffs). It was Daniels Daniels Daniels against the Lions last week, and nothing fazed that man. Plus, Dan Quinn continuously goes for it on 4th down, and they continue to convert it. In fact, the Bills, Chiefs, Eagles, and Commanders are all teams that are the most efficient on 4th downs, and look at what stage they’re at.

Conclusion:

All in all, all of this stuff affects the Dallas Cowboys. Chiefs are taking over as the new America’s team. Bills are trying to become America’s sweethearts. Eagles and Commanders are two of the Cowboys’ biggest rivals, and they're both meeting in the NFC title game while the Boyz couldn't even make it.

That’s it for me. I’d like to hear your predictions below. My prediction stands as it does in the bracket challenge: Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl. The Chiefs will win. The Chiefs will win against the Bills by 2 points. Tyler Bass will miss the field goal to win it. The Eagles will go past the Commanders 35-30, in a Jayden Daniels and Saquon Barkley masterclass but a Dan Quinn disaster class.